Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula — Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 3–1 against Jessica Pegula since 2025 across 4 meetings. Upcoming context: Berlin, Semi-finals, clay court, 2026-06-20. Match odds (Pinnacle): Aryna Sabalenka 1.63, Jessica Pegula 2.45.
H2H Record: Sabalenka vs Pegula
- Aryna Sabalenka 3–1 Jessica Pegula since 2025 (4 meetings).
- 2025-11-04 — Finals - Riyadh, indoor: 6-4 2-6 6-3. Winner: Aryna Sabalenka.
- 2025-10-11 — Wuhan (Wuhan - Semi-finals), hard: 6-2 4-6 6-7. Winner: Jessica Pegula.
- 2025-09-05 — US Open (US Open - Semi-finals), hard: 4-6 6-3 6-4. Winner: Aryna Sabalenka.
- 2025-03-29 — Miami (Miami - Final), hard: 7-5 6-2. Winner: Aryna Sabalenka.
Sabalenka Recent Form
- Aryna Sabalenka recent form (last 5 singles, 2025+): 4 wins, 1 losses — W, W, L, W, W
Pegula Recent Form
- Jessica Pegula recent form (last 5 singles, 2025+): 3 wins, 2 losses — W, W, L, L, W
Match Preview — Berlin June 20, 2026
- Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 3–1 against Jessica Pegula since 2025 across 4 meetings. Upcoming context: Berlin, Semi-finals, clay court, 2026-06-20. Match odds (Pinnacle): Aryna Sabalenka 1.63, Jessica Pegula 2.45.
- 1st Serve In: Sabalenka 65.8%, Pegula 60.9%
- Aces / match: Sabalenka 3.7, Pegula 2.9
- BP Saved: Sabalenka 38.7%, Pegula 27.9%
- BP Converted: Sabalenka 44.4%, Pegula 14.9%
- Return Pts Won: Sabalenka 47.5%, Pegula 45%
- Service Pts Won: Sabalenka 61.7%, Pegula 62.5%
- Winners / match: Sabalenka 39.2, Pegula 30
- Unforced Errors / match: Sabalenka 33.4, Pegula 38
- 1st serve in: Sabalenka 65.8%, Pegula 60.9%
- aces per match: Sabalenka 3.7, Pegula 2.9
- break points saved: Sabalenka 38.7%, Pegula 27.9%
- break points converted: Sabalenka 44.4%, Pegula 14.9%
- return points won: Sabalenka 47.5%, Pegula 45%
- service points won: Sabalenka 61.7%, Pegula 62.5%
- Dominance Score: Sabalenka +8.6, Pegula +6.6
- Break Point Efficiency: Sabalenka -16.9, Pegula -57.2
Head-to-Head metrics (per match average, last 10)
- 1st Serve In: Sabalenka 65.8%, Pegula 60.9%
- Aces / match: Sabalenka 3.7, Pegula 2.9
- BP Saved: Sabalenka 38.7%, Pegula 27.9%
- BP Converted: Sabalenka 44.4%, Pegula 14.9%
- Return Pts Won: Sabalenka 47.5%, Pegula 45%
- Service Pts Won: Sabalenka 61.7%, Pegula 62.5%
- Winners / match: Sabalenka 39.2, Pegula 30
- Unforced Errors / match: Sabalenka 33.4, Pegula 38
Performance profile (last 10 matches average)
- 1st serve in: Sabalenka 65.8%, Pegula 60.9%
- aces per match: Sabalenka 3.7, Pegula 2.9
- break points saved: Sabalenka 38.7%, Pegula 27.9%
- break points converted: Sabalenka 44.4%, Pegula 14.9%
- return points won: Sabalenka 47.5%, Pegula 45%
- service points won: Sabalenka 61.7%, Pegula 62.5%
Match control
- Dominance Score: Sabalenka +8.6, Pegula +6.6
- Break Point Efficiency: Sabalenka -16.9, Pegula -57.2
Rivalry momentum
- After 2025-03-29: Sabalenka 1 wins, Pegula 0 wins in the rivalry.
- After 2025-09-05: Sabalenka 2 wins, Pegula 0 wins in the rivalry.
- After 2025-10-11: Sabalenka 2 wins, Pegula 1 wins in the rivalry.
- After 2025-11-04: Sabalenka 3 wins, Pegula 1 wins in the rivalry.
Surface breakdown
- hard court H2H: Sabalenka 2, Pegula 1
- indoor court H2H: Sabalenka 1, Pegula 0
Key rivalry stats
- Tiebreak sets won: Sabalenka 0, Pegula 1.
- Deciding-set wins: Sabalenka 2, Pegula 1.
- Current H2H streak: Aryna Sabalenka 1 in a row.
Match history since 2025
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | Finals - Riyadh | indoor | 6-4 2-6 6-3 | Aryna Sabalenka | |
| 2025-10-11 | Wuhan | Wuhan - Semi-finals | hard | 6-2 4-6 6-7 | Jessica Pegula |
| 2025-09-05 | US Open | US Open - Semi-finals | hard | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | Aryna Sabalenka |
| 2025-03-29 | Miami | Miami - Final | hard | 7-5 6-2 | Aryna Sabalenka |
H2H since 2025 · 4 meetings
Head-to-Head Metrics
Per match averages · last 10 · since 2025
Sabalenka9.4%Open → Now
1.49→1.63
Implied Δ
-5.8pp
Pegula12.2%Open → Now
2.79→2.45
Implied Δ
+5.0pp
Moneyline drift
first capture → pre-match closeSabalenka · Pegula
Performance Profile
Last 10 matches avg · since 2025
Match Control
Pressure & control · last 10 matches · since 2025
Dominance Score
Break Point Efficiency
Rivalry Momentum
Cumulative H2H wins · 4+ meetings · since 2025
Surface Breakdown
H2H wins by court · since 2025
Sabalenka vs Pegula Preview
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka, ranked 1, is set to face Jessica Pegula, ranked 4, in the Semi-finals of the Berlin tournament on clay. This match marks another encounter between these top-ranked players. The most recent meeting between them was on November 4, 2025, at the Finals - Riyadh on indoor hardcourt.
Head-to-Head History
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head record against Pegula with 3 wins to 1. Their last meeting saw Sabalenka win in three sets at the Finals - Riyadh. Across all their meetings in this dataset, Sabalenka has secured 2 wins on hard courts and 1 win on indoor courts, while Pegula has 1 win on hard courts.
Surface Analysis
This will be their first meeting on clay in the dataset. Sabalenka has a recent singles record of 7 wins and 3 losses on clay, while Pegula also holds a recent singles record of 7 wins and 3 losses on clay. Recent singles matches on grass, hard, and indoor surfaces are limited for both players in this dataset.
Current Form
Sabalenka has won 4 of her last 5 matches, showing strong recent form. Pegula has won 3 of her last 5 matches. Both players are coming into this semi-final with recent match play.
Key Factors
- Sabalenka has a higher first serve percentage at 65.8% compared to Pegula's 60.9%.
- Sabalenka averages more aces per match (3.7) than Pegula (2.9).
- Sabalenka has a better break points converted percentage at 44.4% against Pegula's 14.9%.
- Sabalenka has won 2 deciding sets in their head-to-head, while Pegula has won 1.