Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys — Head to Head
Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 1–1 against Madison Keys since 2025 across 2 meetings. Upcoming context: Berlin, Quarter-finals, clay court, 2026-06-19. Match odds (Pinnacle): Jessica Pegula 1.78, Madison Keys 2.14.
H2H Record: Pegula vs Keys
- Jessica Pegula 1–1 Madison Keys since 2025 (2 meetings).
- 2026-01-26 — WTA Australian Open (Australian Open - 1/8-finals), hard: 6-3 6-4. Winner: Jessica Pegula.
- 2025-01-11 — Adelaide (Adelaide - Final), hard: 3-6 6-4 1-6. Winner: Madison Keys.
Pegula Recent Form
- Jessica Pegula recent form (last 5 singles, 2025+): 3 wins, 2 losses — W, L, L, W, W
Keys Recent Form
- Madison Keys recent form (last 5 singles, 2025+): 4 wins, 1 losses — W, W, L, W, W
Match Preview — Berlin June 19, 2026
- Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 1–1 against Madison Keys since 2025 across 2 meetings. Upcoming context: Berlin, Quarter-finals, clay court, 2026-06-19. Match odds (Pinnacle): Jessica Pegula 1.78, Madison Keys 2.14.
- 1st Serve In: Pegula 61.2%, Keys 69.1%
- Aces / match: Pegula 2.5, Keys 1.8
- BP Saved: Pegula 22%, Keys 53.9%
- BP Converted: Pegula 8.7%, Keys 51.4%
- Return Pts Won: Pegula 46%, Keys 46.5%
- Service Pts Won: Pegula 62.4%, Keys 64.8%
- Winners / match: Pegula 30, Keys 27.8
- Unforced Errors / match: Pegula 38, Keys 39.8
- 1st serve in: Pegula 61.2%, Keys 69.1%
- aces per match: Pegula 2.5, Keys 1.8
- break points saved: Pegula 22%, Keys 53.9%
- break points converted: Pegula 8.7%, Keys 51.4%
- return points won: Pegula 46%, Keys 46.5%
- service points won: Pegula 62.4%, Keys 64.8%
- Dominance Score: Pegula +7.2, Keys +10.4
- Break Point Efficiency: Pegula -69.3, Keys +5.3
Head-to-Head metrics (per match average, last 10)
- 1st Serve In: Pegula 61.2%, Keys 69.1%
- Aces / match: Pegula 2.5, Keys 1.8
- BP Saved: Pegula 22%, Keys 53.9%
- BP Converted: Pegula 8.7%, Keys 51.4%
- Return Pts Won: Pegula 46%, Keys 46.5%
- Service Pts Won: Pegula 62.4%, Keys 64.8%
- Winners / match: Pegula 30, Keys 27.8
- Unforced Errors / match: Pegula 38, Keys 39.8
Performance profile (last 10 matches average)
- 1st serve in: Pegula 61.2%, Keys 69.1%
- aces per match: Pegula 2.5, Keys 1.8
- break points saved: Pegula 22%, Keys 53.9%
- break points converted: Pegula 8.7%, Keys 51.4%
- return points won: Pegula 46%, Keys 46.5%
- service points won: Pegula 62.4%, Keys 64.8%
Match control
- Dominance Score: Pegula +7.2, Keys +10.4
- Break Point Efficiency: Pegula -69.3, Keys +5.3
Rivalry momentum
- After 2025-01-11: Pegula 0 wins, Keys 1 wins in the rivalry.
- After 2026-01-26: Pegula 1 wins, Keys 1 wins in the rivalry.
Surface breakdown
- hard court H2H: Pegula 1, Keys 1
Key rivalry stats
- Tiebreak sets won: Pegula 1, Keys 1.
- Deciding-set wins: Pegula 0, Keys 1.
Match history since 2025
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | WTA Australian Open | Australian Open - 1/8-finals | hard | 6-3 6-4 | Jessica Pegula |
| 2025-01-11 | Adelaide | Adelaide - Final | hard | 3-6 6-4 1-6 | Madison Keys |
Head-to-Head Metrics
Per match averages · last 10 · since 2025
Odds Movement
Pinnacle · 4 snapshots · pre-match
Pegula2.7%Open → Now
1.83→1.78
Implied Δ
+1.6pp
Keys2.9%Open → Now
2.08→2.14
Implied Δ
-1.4pp
Moneyline drift
first capture → pre-match closePegula · Keys
Performance Profile
Last 10 matches avg · since 2025
Match Control
Pressure & control · last 10 matches · since 2025
Dominance Score
Break Point Efficiency
Form Momentum
Cumulative singles wins · last 10 · since 2025
Surface Form
W–L on each court · last 10 singles · since 2025
Surface Breakdown
H2H wins by court · since 2025
Pegula vs Keys Preview
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula, ranked 4th, is set to face Madison Keys, ranked 28th, in the Quarter-finals of the Berlin tournament on clay. Both players hail from the USA. This match marks another encounter between these two competitors in the 2025+ dataset.
Head-to-Head History
In their direct head-to-head meetings within this dataset, Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys are tied with one win each. Their most recent encounter was at the WTA Australian Open on January 26, 2026, where Pegula won on hard court. Their other meeting saw Keys victorious on hard court at the Adelaide Final on January 11, 2025.
Surface Analysis
This match will be played on clay. Jessica Pegula has a recent singles record of 7 wins and 3 losses on clay, while Madison Keys has a strong recent singles record of 9 wins and 1 loss on clay. They have not met on clay in the dataset.
Current Form
Jessica Pegula comes into this match with a recent form of 3 wins and 2 losses, currently on a 1-match winning streak. Madison Keys is in strong recent form with 4 wins and 1 loss, and is currently on a 2-match winning streak. Keys has won 80% of her recent matches, while Pegula has won 60%.
Key Factors
- Madison Keys has a higher first serve percentage at 69.1% compared to Jessica Pegula's 61.2%.
- Jessica Pegula averages 2.5 aces per match, slightly more than Madison Keys' 1.8 aces per match.
- Madison Keys has a significantly higher break points saved percentage at 53.9% compared to Jessica Pegula's 22%.
- Keys also has a higher break points converted percentage at 51.4% against Pegula's 8.7%.
- Jessica Pegula averages 30 winners per match, while Madison Keys averages 27.8 winners per match.