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SAT · JUN 27, 2026

Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka — Head to Head

Karolina Muchova leads the head-to-head 0–2 against Naomi Osaka since 2025 across 2 meetings. Upcoming context: Bad Homburg, Final, grass court, 2026-06-27. Match odds (Pinnacle): Karolina Muchova 2.39, Naomi Osaka 1.64.

H2H Record: Muchova vs Osaka

  • Karolina Muchova 0–2 Naomi Osaka since 2025 (2 meetings).
  • 2025-09-04 — US Open (US Open - Quarter-finals), hard: 4-6 6-7. Winner: Naomi Osaka.
  • 2025-01-15 — Australian Open (Australian Open - 1/32-finals), hard: 6-1 1-6 3-6. Winner: Naomi Osaka.

Muchova Recent Form

  • Karolina Muchova recent form (last 5 singles, 2025+): 4 wins, 1 losses — W, W, W, L, W

Osaka Recent Form

  • Naomi Osaka recent form (last 5 singles, 2025+): 4 wins, 1 losses — W, W, W, W, L

Match Preview — Bad Homburg June 27, 2026

  • Karolina Muchova leads the head-to-head 0–2 against Naomi Osaka since 2025 across 2 meetings. Upcoming context: Bad Homburg, Final, grass court, 2026-06-27. Match odds (Pinnacle): Karolina Muchova 2.39, Naomi Osaka 1.64.
  • 1st Serve In: Muchova 63.9%, Osaka 55.7%
  • Aces / match: Muchova 3.1, Osaka 5
  • BP Saved: Muchova 44.8%, Osaka 32.7%
  • BP Converted: Muchova 48.5%, Osaka 44.3%
  • Return Pts Won: Muchova 44.2%, Osaka 45.6%
  • Service Pts Won: Muchova 59.9%, Osaka 64%
  • Winners / match: Muchova 17.7, Osaka 30.3
  • Unforced Errors / match: Muchova 25.7, Osaka 33
  • 1st serve in: Muchova 63.9%, Osaka 55.7%
  • aces per match: Muchova 3.1, Osaka 5
  • break points saved: Muchova 44.8%, Osaka 32.7%
  • break points converted: Muchova 48.5%, Osaka 44.3%
  • return points won: Muchova 44.2%, Osaka 45.6%
  • service points won: Muchova 59.9%, Osaka 64%
  • Dominance Score: Muchova +4.2, Osaka +9.6
  • Break Point Efficiency: Muchova -6.7, Osaka -23

Head-to-Head metrics (per match average, last 10)

  • 1st Serve In: Muchova 63.9%, Osaka 55.7%
  • Aces / match: Muchova 3.1, Osaka 5
  • BP Saved: Muchova 44.8%, Osaka 32.7%
  • BP Converted: Muchova 48.5%, Osaka 44.3%
  • Return Pts Won: Muchova 44.2%, Osaka 45.6%
  • Service Pts Won: Muchova 59.9%, Osaka 64%
  • Winners / match: Muchova 17.7, Osaka 30.3
  • Unforced Errors / match: Muchova 25.7, Osaka 33

Performance profile (last 10 matches average)

  • 1st serve in: Muchova 63.9%, Osaka 55.7%
  • aces per match: Muchova 3.1, Osaka 5
  • break points saved: Muchova 44.8%, Osaka 32.7%
  • break points converted: Muchova 48.5%, Osaka 44.3%
  • return points won: Muchova 44.2%, Osaka 45.6%
  • service points won: Muchova 59.9%, Osaka 64%

Match control

  • Dominance Score: Muchova +4.2, Osaka +9.6
  • Break Point Efficiency: Muchova -6.7, Osaka -23

Rivalry momentum

  • After 2025-01-15: Muchova 0 wins, Osaka 1 wins in the rivalry.
  • After 2025-09-04: Muchova 0 wins, Osaka 2 wins in the rivalry.

Surface breakdown

  • hard court H2H: Muchova 0, Osaka 2

Key rivalry stats

  • Tiebreak sets won: Muchova 0, Osaka 0.
  • Deciding-set wins: Muchova 1, Osaka 0.

Match history since 2025

Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka direct meetings
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceScoreWinner
2025-09-04US OpenUS Open - Quarter-finalshard4-6 6-7Naomi Osaka
2025-01-15Australian OpenAustralian Open - 1/32-finalshard6-1 1-6 3-6Naomi Osaka
Karolina Muchova
#11Czech Republic

KarolinaMuchova

29yrs
178cm
Righthand
3,438pts
0:2

H2H since 2025 · 2 meetings

hard 0–2
Naomi Osaka
#15Japan

NaomiOsaka

28yrs
2,571pts

Head-to-Head Metrics

Per match averages · last 10 · since 2025

lead63.9%1st Serve In55.7%
3.1Aces / match5lead
lead44.8%BP Saved32.7%
lead48.5%BP Converted44.3%
44.2%Return Pts Won45.6%lead
59.9%Service Pts Won64%lead
17.7Winners / match30.3lead
25.7Unforced Errors / match33lead

Odds Movement

Pinnacle · 2 snapshots · pre-match

All lines today
Czech RepublicMuchova0.4%

Open → Now

2.38→2.39

Implied Δ

-0.2pp

JapanOsaka0.0%

Open → Now

1.64→1.64

Implied Δ

+0.0pp

Moneyline drift

first capture → pre-match close

Muchova · Osaka

Performance Profile

Last 10 matches avg · since 2025

MuchovaOsaka

Match Control

Pressure & control · last 10 matches · since 2025

Dominance Score

Muchova
+4.2
Osaka
+9.6

Break Point Efficiency

Muchova
-6.7
Osaka
-23

Form Momentum

Cumulative singles wins · last 10 · since 2025

Muchova: 6WOsaka: 8W

Surface Form

W–L on each court · last 10 singles · since 2025

Grasstoday
3–0 · 4–0
3
4
100% B
Clay
3–4 · 4–2
3
4
67% B

Surface Breakdown

H2H wins by court · since 2025

Hard
2 meetings
0
2
100% B

Muchova vs Osaka Preview

Match Overview

Karolina Muchova, ranked 11th, will face Naomi Osaka, ranked 15th, in the Final of the Bad Homburg tournament on grass. Muchova, from the Czech Republic, is right-handed and stands 178cm tall. Osaka represents Japan.

Head-to-Head History

Naomi Osaka leads the head-to-head record against Karolina Muchova with two wins to zero. Their most recent encounter was at the US Open on September 4, 2025, where Osaka won in straight sets (4-6 6-7). Their other meeting was at the Australian Open on January 15, 2025, also on hard court, with Osaka winning 6-1 1-6 3-6.

Surface Analysis

This match is on grass. Karolina Muchova has a recent singles record of 3 wins and 0 losses on grass, while Naomi Osaka has a recent singles record of 4 wins and 0 losses on grass. In their direct head-to-head meetings, they have not met on grass in the dataset.

Current Form

Karolina Muchova enters this match with a strong recent form, having won 4 of her last 5 matches, including a current three-match winning streak. Naomi Osaka also shows strong recent form, winning 4 of her last 5 matches and is currently on a four-match winning streak.

Key Factors

  • Naomi Osaka has a 2-0 lead in their head-to-head meetings, both on hard courts.
  • Naomi Osaka has a higher Aces per match average (5.0) compared to Karolina Muchova (3.1).
  • Karolina Muchova has a higher first serve percentage (63.9%) than Naomi Osaka (55.7%).
  • Naomi Osaka has a higher service points won percentage (64.0%) compared to Karolina Muchova (59.9%).
  • Karolina Muchova has a better break points saved percentage (44.8%) than Naomi Osaka (32.7%).

Related head-to-head previews

Full schedule for SAT · JUN 27, 2026 →